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Elect Ledger2026 Midterms

U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

Who holds the Senate

A polling view of the 2026 Senate races. Ratings describe poll margins, not win probabilities. Missing inputs remain unavailable.

Senate polling map

  • Unavailable
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Tilt D
  • Toss-up
  • Tilt R
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

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Select a state to open a race sheet. Use Tab and Enter or Space to select by keyboard.

Sand is a toss-up, inside two points. Light color is tilt or lean. Saturated is likely or solid. Dark gray is not on the ballot; outlined gray is an unavailable rating.

D+I · seats not up + rated leads

39

R · seats not up + rated leads

35

Distance to 51

D+I need 12; R need 16

2 toss-ups and 24 unavailable seats excluded. Totals include seats not up. Polling leads are not guaranteed wins.

10 tracked firms · tap to filter

Elect Ledger tracks this selected set of firms; this is not a published pollster ranking. Tap a firm to see only its races.

Daily refresh: 18:00 UTC · 1 p.m. EST / 2 p.m. EDT.

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This week · top 10 only

No qualifying Senate poll from the ten tracked firms is loaded for the last eight days. Collection is incomplete.

Polling-implied pickups · inherited party holdings

D +3

Net among rated seats only; toss-ups and unavailable seats excluded. Inherited party holdings await an official membership audit. This is not a chamber forecast.

  • D hold

    2

  • D pickup

    3

  • Tossup

    2

  • R pickup

    0

  • R hold

    4

  • Rating unavailable

    24

Federal calendar

  1. Nov 3

    General election

    Federal general election. Check your state election office for local voting hours and ballot information.

State primary, special-election and runoff dates await source verification. Find your state election office.

Race directory

35 matching races

How Elect Ledger colors a race

  • Toss-upinside two points. Either party can win.
  • Tilt DLean DTilt RLean Rlight fills are tilt (2–4) and lean (4–7). Likely and solid stay saturated.
  • Without a qualifying poll or approved desk source, the rating is unavailable. Elect Ledger calculates its own poll averages. Independent forecasts are linked on Method.
  • D+I floor 39
  • Toss-up 2
  • Unavailable 24
  • R floor 35